Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Probability
63¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$61.79
Liquidity
$83.56
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 186h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 185.7h
- 22:18SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 186h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-9.0pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 22:18 (to 63¢).
Show 5 hourly moves
- 22:18 · +22.0pp → 63¢
- 21:00 · +17.0pp → 63¢
- 19:00 · +16.0pp → 65¢
- 18:00 · +14.0pp → 63¢
- 17:00 · +13.5pp → 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.