Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 0 Villarreal CF?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 66h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-43.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 66h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 66 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 17, 17:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 65.7h
- 23:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 66h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -41.5pp at May 11, 17:00 UTC (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- May 12, 07:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
- May 12, 06:00 UTC · -41.5pp → 6¢
- May 12, 05:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
- May 12, 03:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
- May 11, 21:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
- May 11, 18:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
- May 11, 17:00 UTC · -41.5pp → 6¢
- May 11, 11:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming La Liga game between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Villarreal CF, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
la ligaReason
La Liga — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 0 Villarreal CF?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 23:17:35 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -43.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.58. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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