UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 6, 2026
Creator

Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06?

Probability

77¢

1h

+19.5pp

24h

+42.5pp

24h Vol

$14.2K

Liquidity

$29.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
conmebollibertadores.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+36.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 00:00May 6, 2026, 23:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T23-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 43pp over 24h

    Now 77¢; +19.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 42.5pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 23:37Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 42.5pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 23:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 22:00Resolve

    Expiry passed 2h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+42.5pp over the last 24h, now 77¢.

Biggest hourly move: +29.5pp at 23:00 (to 62¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 23:00 · +29.5pp → 62¢
  • 4d ago · -8.0pp → 31¢
  • 4d ago · -8.0pp → 32¢
  • 4d ago · -8.0pp → 32¢
  • 4d ago · -8.0pp → 32¢
  • 4d ago · -8.0pp → 32¢
  • 4d ago · -8.5pp → 32¢
  • 4d ago · -9.0pp → 32¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventDeportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar
Category · Other

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 6, 2026 If Deportivo La Guaira FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 23:37:25 GMT, YES is priced at 77% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +42.5pp in the last 24 hours, +19.5pp in the last hour, and +36.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T22:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://conmebollibertadores.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$14.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket