Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

• 1

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 2

  Wide spread — 95.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

• 3

  Past expiry — awaiting resolution

  Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates. Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used. If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.