SportsExpires May 23, 2026
Creator

LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

Probability

64¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-6.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 23, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
64¢
May 15, 2026, 19:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 11:04 UTC
updated 11:04:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T11-04Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 64¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 69¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 23, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 120.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 64¢.

Biggest hourly move: +14.0pp at 07:00 (to 64¢).

updated 11:04:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:04:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between Dplus KIA and BNK FEARX in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 23 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win Game 1 against BNK FEARX. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win Game 1 against Dplus KIA. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:04:50 GMT, YES is priced at 64% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket