LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season
Probability
36¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$1.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 36¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 31¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 130.6h
Price movement
+5.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at 02:00 (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +9.5pp → 37¢
- 13:00 · +9.5pp → 37¢
- 05:00 · -9.5pp → 36¢
- 03:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 02:00 · -17.0pp → 36¢
- 00:00 · -14.0pp → 36¢
- 23:00 · -14.0pp → 36¢
- 22:00 · -14.0pp → 36¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between GTZ Esports and ZeroZone Gaming in the LPLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 8 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "GTZ Esports" if GTZ Esports win the match against ZeroZone Gaming. This market will resolve to "ZeroZone Gaming" if ZeroZone Gaming win the match against GTZ Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:24:45 GMT, YES is priced at 36% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T03:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
