SportsExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

Probability

41¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$8.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 37h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 04:00May 7, 2026, 08:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T08-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 41¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 37h.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 37 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 36.9h

    HIGH
  • 08:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 37h.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between GIANTX and Movistar KOI in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 8 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win Game 1 against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 1 against GIANTX. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 08:06:57 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket