Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-46.0pp
24h Vol
$642.82
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 46pp over 24h
Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 23, 15:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 95.1h
Price movement
-46.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢0.0
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 4?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 4?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 4?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 4?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 53¢+2.5
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
First Blood in Game 4?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
First Blood in Game 1?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
First Blood in Game 2?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 62¢+4.0
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
Sports · Vol $9.8M
- 31¢+1.0
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Sports · Vol $1.9M
- 0¢-68.5
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 100¢+40.0
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 100¢+46.9
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 33¢-1.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $992.3K
Market Description
This market is about whether any player achieves a Penta Kill during Game 5. In League of Legends, a Penta Kill occurs when a single player kills all 5 enemy champions in rapid succession. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Penta Kill during Game 5. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves a Penta Kill. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 5 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 5 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether a Penta Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Penta Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 5 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill?"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 15:53:00 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -46.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$642.82 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $642.82. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.