LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner
Probability
79¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$40.10
Liquidity
$26.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 14h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 14 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 14.1h
- 04:54SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+29.0pp over the last 24h, now 79¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket round 1 match between Natus Vincere and Galions in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 28 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 2 against Galions. This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win Game 2 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.