SportsExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-38.5pp

24h Vol

$104.9K

Liquidity

$173.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 15, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 22:41 UTC
updated 22:41:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T22-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 38pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:41Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 4h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation

    HIGH

Price movement

-38.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 22:41:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:41:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 16 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 22:41:41 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -38.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$104.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $104.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $173.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket