SportsExpires May 7, 2026
Creator

LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season

Probability

100¢

1h

+51.4pp

24h

+38.5pp

24h Vol

$59.3K

Liquidity

$320.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 12:00May 7, 2026, 19:09
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T19-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 38pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +51.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $59.3k traded against $320.4k of visible liquidity (0.19× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 38.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:30Resolve

    Market resolves in 3.3h

    HIGH
  • 19:09Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 38.5pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 19:09Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

+38.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +35.5pp at 19:00 (to 100¢).

Show top 8 of 13 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · +35.5pp → 100¢
  • 15:00 · -15.5pp → 50¢
  • 14:00 · -15.5pp → 49¢
  • 12:00 · -15.5pp → 49¢
  • 11:00 · -15.5pp → 49¢
  • 10:00 · -17.0pp → 48¢
  • 08:00 · -14.0pp → 51¢
  • 04:00 · +15.0pp → 62¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between PCIFIC and Bushido Wildcats in the TCL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 7 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "PCIFIC " if PCIFIC win the match against Bushido Wildcats. This market will resolve to "Bushido Wildcats" if Bushido Wildcats win the match against PCIFIC . If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 19:09:20 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +38.5pp in the last 24 hours, +51.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T22:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$59.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $63.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $320.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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