LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX - Game 1 Winner
Probability
50¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$119.75
Liquidity
$3.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 23h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 13, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 50¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 23h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 23 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 13, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 22.9h
- 01:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 23h.
Price movement
+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at 00:00 (to 50¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 01:05 · +7.0pp → 50¢
- 00:00 · +7.0pp → 50¢
- 22:00 · +4.5pp → 48¢
- 21:00 · +4.5pp → 48¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between paiN Gaming Academy and 7REX in the Circuito Desafiante Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming Academy" if paiN Gaming Academy win Game 1 against 7REX. This market will resolve to "7REX" if 7REX win Game 1 against paiN Gaming Academy. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX - Game 1 Winner"?
As of Tue, 12 May 2026 01:05:12 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$119.75 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $119.75. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
