LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-17.0pp
24h Vol
$10.0K
Liquidity
$56.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 17pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $10.0k traded against $56.1k of visible liquidity (0.18× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 0.8h
- 20:14SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
-17.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -35.0pp at 2d ago (to 16¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -33.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -34.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -35.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between ROSSMANN Centaurs and Team Orange Gaming in the Prime League 1st Division Group A, initially scheduled for May 6 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "ROSSMANN Centaurs" if ROSSMANN Centaurs win Game 2 against Team Orange Gaming. This market will resolve to "Team Orange Gaming" if Team Orange Gaming win Game 2 against ROSSMANN Centaurs. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:14:38 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -17.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $56.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
