LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$738.23
Liquidity
$13.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 18¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 23h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $13.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 23h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 23 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 23.1h
- 21:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 23h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.0pp at 2d ago (to 26¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +12.5pp → 31¢
- 09:00 · +9.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -25.0pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Shifters and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 26 at 10:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Shifters. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.