LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner
Probability
39¢
1h
-17.5pp
24h
-16.0pp
24h Vol
$23.4K
Liquidity
$4.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 2h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 39¢; -17.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.3× turnover
$23.4k traded against $4.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 2h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 04Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 02:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 2.5h
- 23:32SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-16.0pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at 23:32 (to 79¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 23:32 · +20.0pp → 79¢
- 22:00 · -9.0pp → 56¢
- 21:00 · -9.0pp → 56¢
- 04:00 · -6.0pp → 54¢
- 00:00 · -5.5pp → 55¢
- May 26, 23:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 55¢
- May 26, 13:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 59¢
- May 26, 12:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 59¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
1- BUYWINTHROP UNIVERSITYMay 27, 23:29 UTC
Related Markets
14- 19¢-41.5
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs
Sports · Vol $32.1K
- 50¢+15.0
Games Total: O/U 4.5
Sports · Vol $4.34
- 99¢+71.0
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?
Sports · Vol $10.00
- 99¢+34.0
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?
Sports · Vol $10.00
- 50¢+20.5
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill?
Sports · Vol $10.00
- 50¢+23.0
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill?
Sports · Vol $10.00
- 90¢+40.0
Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?
Sports · Vol $10.00
- 50¢-4.0
Game 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $3.8M
- 17¢-34.5
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sports · Vol $2.1M
- 59¢+1.0
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens
Sports · Vol $1.4M
- 4¢+0.2
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 1¢0.0
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 3¢+0.1
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal match between Supernova and Winthrop University in the North American Challengers League Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 27 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Supernova" if Supernova win Game 4 against Winthrop University. This market will resolve to "Winthrop University" if Winthrop University win Game 4 against Supernova. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner"?
As of Wed, 27 May 2026 23:32:30 GMT, YES is priced at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.0pp in the last 24 hours, -17.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T02:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$23.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $23.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.