SportsExpires May 29, 2026
Creator

LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+29.4pp

24h Vol

$127.5K

Liquidity

$671.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 29, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 25, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 29, 2026, 15:12 UTC
updated 22:35:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-29T22-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 29pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $127.5k traded against $671.2k of visible liquidity (0.19× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:15Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 6h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation

    HIGH

Price movement

+29.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 14:00 (to 100¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · +28.5pp → 100¢
  • 14:00 · +28.5pp → 100¢
  • 13:00 · +16.0pp → 88¢
  • May 28, 03:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 71¢
  • May 28, 02:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 71¢
  • May 28, 00:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 71¢
  • May 27, 22:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 71¢
  • May 27, 20:00 UTC · +20.5pp → 71¢
updated 22:35:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:35:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Top Esports and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 29 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 3 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 3 against Top Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner"?

As of Fri, 29 May 2026 22:35:35 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +29.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 29, 2026 (2026-05-29T16:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$127.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $127.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $671.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

17 wallets
Open on Polymarket