SportsExpires Jun 14, 2026
Creator

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Probability

1¢

1h

-22.5pp

24h

-35.0pp

24h Vol

$297.77

Liquidity

$9.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 14, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 8, 2026, 14:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 22:50 UTC
updated 22:50:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T22-50Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 35pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -22.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 1¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Games Total: O/U 4.5 State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Games Total: O/U 4.5 State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 02:10Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.3h

    HIGH
  • 22:50Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

-35.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -19.0pp at 22:00 (to 18¢).

Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -19.0pp → 18¢
  • Jun 11, 23:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 36¢
  • Jun 11, 16:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 37¢
  • Jun 11, 15:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 37¢
  • Jun 11, 13:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 37¢
  • Jun 11, 11:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 37¢
  • Jun 11, 10:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 37¢
  • Jun 11, 09:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 37¢
updated 22:50:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:50:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Team Liquid and Cloud9 in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 13 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if Team Liquid and Cloud9 play 5 or more games in this series. If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Gamma category hint

Matched term

Sports

Reason

No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Games Total: O/U 4.5"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:50:56 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -35.0pp in the last 24 hours, -22.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 14, 2026 (2026-06-14T02:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$297.77 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $297.77. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket