SportsExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-47.9pp

24h Vol

$49.1K

Liquidity

$41.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 8, 2026, 23:00May 11, 2026, 19:47
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-11T19-47Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 48pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 23:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.2h

    HIGH
  • 19:47Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

-47.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -50.5pp at 19:47 (to 0¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 19:47 · -50.5pp → 0¢
  • 18:00 · -49.5pp → 0¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between Team Orange Gaming and Kaufland Hangry Knights in the Prime League 1st Division Group A, initially scheduled for May 11 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Orange Gaming" if Team Orange Gaming wins 2 or more games than Kaufland Hangry Knights in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kaufland Hangry Knights". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Gamma category hint

Matched term

Sports

Reason

No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)"?

As of Mon, 11 May 2026 19:47:43 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -47.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$49.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $49.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $41.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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