LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$6.5K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 38¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 19h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 19 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 18.7h
- 18:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 19h.
Price movement
-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 38¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.5pp at 15:00 (to 39¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 15:00 · -11.5pp → 39¢
- 13:00 · -8.5pp → 42¢
- 07:00 · -11.0pp → 39¢
- 05:00 · -10.5pp → 40¢
- 23:00 · -8.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · -10.5pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and LNG Esports in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 3 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win Game 1 against LNG Esports. This market will resolve to "LNG Esports" if LNG Esports win Game 1 against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.