LoL: VfB eSports vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-10.9pp
24h Vol
$3.3K
Liquidity
$51.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:10ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.2h
- 17:55SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
-10.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.0pp at 15:00 (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +41.0pp → 50¢
- 19:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 18:00 · -38.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -38.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -39.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -39.0pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between VfB eSports and G2 NORD in the Prime League 1st Division Group B, initially scheduled for May 6 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "VfB eSports" if VfB eSports win Game 2 against G2 NORD. This market will resolve to "G2 NORD" if G2 NORD win Game 2 against VfB eSports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: VfB eSports vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 17:55:19 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -10.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T21:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $51.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
