GeopoliticsExpires May 21, 2026

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2

Probability

16¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-9.0pp

24h Vol

$5.43

Liquidity

$9.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 9pp over 24h

    Now 16¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 617h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 15.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 617.4h

    LOW
  • 19:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 617h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.5pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.5pp at 00:00 (to 18¢).

Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -14.0pp → 16¢
  • 17:00 · -11.5pp → 16¢
  • 15:00 · -8.0pp → 18¢
  • 14:00 · -11.0pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · -12.5pp → 18¢
  • 11:00 · -17.5pp → 17¢
  • 09:00 · -18.0pp → 18¢
  • 08:00 · -16.5pp → 19¢
  • 06:00 · -17.5pp → 19¢
  • 05:00 · -18.0pp → 19¢
  • 03:00 · -18.0pp → 19¢
  • 02:00 · -18.0pp → 19¢
  • 00:00 · -18.5pp → 18¢
  • 23:00 · -13.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +7.0pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +7.0pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +7.0pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +11.5pp → 34¢
  • 1d ago · +11.0pp → 34¢
  • 1d ago · +11.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +7.5pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +9.5pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +12.5pp → 27¢
  • 2d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Weibo Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2, initially scheduled for May 21 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensus
gol.gg
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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