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GeopoliticsExpires Mar 30, 2026

First Blood in Game 1?

Probability

55¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.83

Probability (last 7 days)

-45.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 90.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 13:27Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 13:27Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -45.2pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -45.3pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -24.8pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -24.3pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -44.9pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Weibo Gaming and Invictus Gaming in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2, initially scheduled for March 30 at 5:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 1 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://gol.gg/esports/homeNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (90.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).