LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Probability
100¢
1h
+65.5pp
24h
+61.0pp
24h Vol
$580.3K
Liquidity
$236.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 61pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +65.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover
$580.3k traded against $236.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 61.0pp in 24h with 2.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 14, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:20Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 4.2h
- 13:05SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 61.0pp in 24h with 2.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:05SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+61.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +56.0pp at 13:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
- 13:00 · +56.0pp → 100¢
- 12:00 · -27.0pp → 17¢
- 09:00 · -7.5pp → 37¢
- 08:00 · -7.5pp → 37¢
- 02:00 · -7.5pp → 37¢
- 00:00 · -7.0pp → 37¢
- 23:00 · -10.5pp → 37¢
- 15:00 · -7.5pp → 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports · Vol $532.7K
Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win Game 1 against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win Game 1 against Weibo Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 13:05:46 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +61.0pp in the last 24 hours, +65.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T17:20:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$580.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $580.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $236.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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