Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 2?
Probability
4¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$212.16
Liquidity
$872.05
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 45h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $872 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 45h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 45 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 45.1h
- 14:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 45h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 8¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $58.39
- 31¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $2.11
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $101.06
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $61.18
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $78.18
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2?
Weather · Vol $248.51
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on May 2?
Weather · Vol $1.1K
- 21¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on May 2?
Weather · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.