Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on April 25?
Probability
46¢
1h
+7.5pp
24h
+29.5pp
24h Vol
$28.89
Liquidity
$146.75
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 8.5h
- 03:29SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 1¢+0.1pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on April 25?
Weather · Vol $31.71
- 1¢-0.1pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $16.31
- 11¢-0.5pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $440.61
- 30¢+2.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $74.29
- 16¢-18.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $121.40
- 7¢-1.3pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $265.27
- 1¢0.0pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $993.16
- 1¢-0.6pp
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 25?
Weather · Vol $1.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).