OtherExpires Dec 31, 2025

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Probability

28¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$87.4K

Liquidity

$107.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 28¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.

Biggest hourly move: +13.0pp at 2d ago (to 41¢).

Show all 24 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -8.0pp → 30¢
  • 15:00 · -5.0pp → 30¢
  • 14:00 · -5.0pp → 30¢
  • 12:00 · -4.0pp → 30¢
  • 11:00 · -4.0pp → 31¢
  • 21:00 · +4.0pp → 30¢
  • 19:00 · +3.5pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 31¢
  • 1d ago · +5.0pp → 33¢
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 32¢
  • 1d ago · +6.0pp → 31¢
  • 1d ago · +5.5pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +5.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +6.5pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +8.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +10.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +6.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · +13.0pp → 41¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventMegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $2,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2025
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket