MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?
Probability
84¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$395.73
Liquidity
$4.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 182.0h
Price movement
+28.5pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryannouncements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were madeLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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