MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11?
Probability
74¢
1h
-14.5pp
24h
-21.0pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$1.0K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryannouncements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were madeLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 21pp over 24h
Now 74¢; -14.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryannouncements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were madeLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 137.1h
- 10:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-21.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Alerts
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