SportsExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

Probability

1h

-50.0pp

24h

-42.0pp

24h Vol

$359.8K

Liquidity

$32.8K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 19:00May 5, 2026, 01:26
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 42pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; -50.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 11.0× turnover

    $359.8k traded against $32.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 42.0pp in 24h with 11.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 11¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 166.2h

    LOW
  • 01:27Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 42.0pp in 24h with 11.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-42.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: +32.5pp at 00:00 (to 71¢).

Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
  • 01:26 · -31.5pp → 7¢
  • 00:00 · +32.5pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · +11.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · +11.5pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · +10.5pp → 47¢
  • 2d ago · +11.0pp → 47¢
  • 4d ago · -13.0pp → 37¢
  • 4d ago · -13.0pp → 37¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for May 4 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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