SportsExpires Jun 25, 2026
Creator

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees

Probability

42¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$26.5K

Liquidity

$158.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

51% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Confidence below paper gate

Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    51% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
44
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$13k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$159k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
42¢
Jun 12, 2026, 14:00 UTCJun 18, 2026, 13:10 UTC
updated 13:10:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-18T13-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $26.5k traded against $158.7k of visible liquidity (0.17× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.mlb.com/

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 25, 23:05 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 177.9h

    LOW
  • 13:10Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at Jun 15, 20:00 UTC (to 33¢).

Show top 8 of 54 hourly moves
  • Jun 17, 12:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 37¢
  • Jun 15, 23:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 34¢
  • Jun 15, 22:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 33¢
  • Jun 15, 20:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 33¢
  • Jun 15, 13:00 UTC · -13.5pp → 39¢
  • Jun 15, 07:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 50¢
  • Jun 15, 06:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 50¢
  • Jun 15, 05:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 50¢
updated 13:10:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:10:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventChicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 18 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees"?

As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:10:52 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +4.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 25, 2026 (2026-06-25T23:05:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$26.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $26.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $158.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket