Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
Probability
59¢
1h
+19.5pp
24h
+15.0pp
24h Vol
$13.4K
Liquidity
$26.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 15pp over 24h
Now 59¢; +19.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 15.0pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 15.0pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 00:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 23:10Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+15.0pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
2- SELLUNDER5m ago
- SELLUNDER5m ago
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, scheduled for May 12 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mlb Reason
MLB — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5"?
As of Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:53 GMT, YES is priced at 59% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +15.0pp in the last 24 hours, +19.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T23:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$13.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $13.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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