SportsExpires May 7, 2026
Creator

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles

Probability

48¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$29.3K

Liquidity

$201.3K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 14:00Apr 30, 2026, 14:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 48¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $29.3k traded against $201.3k of visible liquidity (0.15× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 169.6h

    LOW

Price movement

+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.0pp at 21:00 (to 45¢).

Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · -16.0pp → 47¢
  • 06:00 · -16.0pp → 47¢
  • 05:00 · -16.0pp → 47¢
  • 03:00 · -16.0pp → 47¢
  • 01:00 · -16.5pp → 47¢
  • 00:00 · -16.5pp → 47¢
  • 23:00 · -17.5pp → 46¢
  • 21:00 · -18.0pp → 45¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventHouston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for April 30 at 12:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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