SportsExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Probability

12¢

1h

-30.0pp

24h

-39.0pp

24h Vol

$297.5K

Liquidity

$36.3K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 19:00May 5, 2026, 01:26
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 39pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; -30.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 8.2× turnover

    $297.5k traded against $36.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 39.0pp in 24h with 8.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 17¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 166.3h

    LOW
  • 01:28Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 39.0pp in 24h with 8.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-39.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: -42.5pp at 01:00 (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves
  • 01:00 · -42.5pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 2d ago · -5.5pp → 50¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 48¢
  • 4d ago · +5.0pp → 55¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

3
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for May 4 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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