SportsExpires May 13, 2026
Creator

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Probability

50¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$55.7K

Liquidity

$227.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 14:00May 6, 2026, 17:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T17-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 168.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 17:00 (to 50¢).

Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · -7.0pp → 50¢
  • 16:00 · -5.5pp → 50¢
  • 14:00 · -5.5pp → 50¢
  • 12:00 · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 10:00 · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 09:00 · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 08:00 · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 06:00 · -4.5pp → 51¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for May 6 at 1:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

brewers

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "brewers" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 17:13:40 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T17:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$55.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $57.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $227.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket