SportsExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Probability

100¢

1h

+36.4pp

24h

+48.4pp

24h Vol

$289.7K

Liquidity

$727.7K

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 18:00May 5, 2026, 01:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 48pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +36.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 48.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 165.2h

    LOW
  • 01:27Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 48.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 01:27Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

+48.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +16.5pp at 00:00 (to 65¢).

Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · +16.5pp → 65¢
  • 2d ago · -15.5pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -16.0pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -16.0pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · -16.0pp → 48¢
  • 3d ago · -16.0pp → 48¢
  • 3d ago · -16.0pp → 48¢
  • 3d ago · -15.5pp → 49¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 4 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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