SportsExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants

Probability

51¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$15.4K

Liquidity

$33.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
mlb.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 14:00May 8, 2026, 13:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T13-35Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 180.7h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.

Biggest hourly move: +12.0pp at 2d ago (to 56¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • 06:00 · +7.5pp → 53¢
  • 17:00 · +7.5pp → 52¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 54¢
  • 2d ago · +8.0pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 54¢
  • 2d ago · +12.0pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 54¢
  • 2d ago · +11.5pp → 53¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventPittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for May 8 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 13:35:37 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T02:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $33.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket