SportsExpires May 13, 2026
Creator

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

Probability

100¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

+63.1pp

24h Vol

$258.0K

Liquidity

$28.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 14:00May 7, 2026, 01:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T01-56Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 63pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 9.2× turnover

    $258.0k traded against $28.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 63.1pp in 24h with 9.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 95¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 165.1h

    LOW
  • 01:56Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 63.1pp in 24h with 9.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+63.1pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +53.9pp at 01:00 (to 96¢).

Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
  • 01:00 · +53.9pp → 96¢
  • 00:00 · +42.5pp → 82¢
  • 17:00 · -7.5pp → 36¢
  • 13:00 · -8.0pp → 35¢
  • 12:00 · -8.0pp → 35¢
  • 4d ago · -8.5pp → 42¢
  • 4d ago · -8.5pp → 42¢
  • 4d ago · -9.5pp → 41¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees, scheduled for May 6 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

yankees

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "yankees" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 01:56:24 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +63.1pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T23:05:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$258.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $258.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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