Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming PH vs AP.Bren (BO3) - MPL Philippines Regular Season
Probability
100¢
1h
+62.0pp
24h
+32.0pp
24h Vol
$2.3K
Liquidity
$14.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 32pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +62.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $14.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:30Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 4.1h
- 13:24SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+32.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +33.5pp at 13:24 (to 100¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 13:24 · +33.5pp → 100¢
- 12:00 · -23.0pp → 44¢
- May 13, 18:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 67¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market refers to the Mobile Legends Bang Bang match between Aurora Gaming PH and AP.Bren in the MPL Philippines Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 17 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming PH" if Aurora Gaming PH win the match against AP.Bren. This market will resolve to "AP.Bren" if AP.Bren win the match against Aurora Gaming PH. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming PH vs AP.Bren (BO3) - MPL Philippines Regular Season"?
As of Sun, 17 May 2026 13:24:07 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +32.0pp in the last 24 hours, +62.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T17:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.