Game Handicap: EVOS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
Probability
44¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$15.76
Liquidity
$950.22
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 44¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 18h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 18 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:15Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 18.5h
- 18:45SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 18h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+8.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.5pp at May 13, 19:00 UTC (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 18:00 · +22.0pp → 46¢
- 05:00 · +14.0pp → 37¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · +14.0pp → 37¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 25¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 25¢
- May 13, 22:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 25¢
- May 13, 20:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 25¢
- May 13, 19:00 UTC · -25.5pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 70¢-3.0
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular Season
Sports · Vol $23.96
- 68¢+5.0
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 68¢+5.0
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 46¢-1.0
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-1.0
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?
Sports · Vol $4.2M
- 55¢+9.0
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.9M
- 100¢+57.5
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 88¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 0¢0.0
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 100¢+26.5
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi
Sports · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market refers to the Mobile Legends Bang Bang match between EVOS and Natus Vincere in the MPL Indonesia Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 16 at 3:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "EVOS" if EVOS wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
natus vincereReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "natus vincere" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game Handicap: EVOS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)"?
As of Fri, 15 May 2026 18:45:44 GMT, YES is priced at 44% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T13:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$15.76 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.76. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $950.22. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.