SportsExpires Aug 15, 2026
Creator

Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Score in Second Half

Probability

46¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$698.36

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
mlssoccer.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
1007550250
46¢
Aug 5, 2026, 00:00 UTCAug 11, 2026, 23:39 UTC
updated 23:39:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-11T23-39Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $698 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: official statistics

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Score in Second Half State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Score in Second Half State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 15, 23:30 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 95.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.

Biggest hourly move: +16.5pp at 13:00 (to 67¢).

Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
  • 14:00 · +16.5pp → 67¢
  • 13:00 · +16.5pp → 67¢
  • 11:00 · +11.0pp → 61¢
  • 02:00 · -9.0pp → 46¢
  • 00:00 · -6.5pp → 45¢
  • Aug 10, 09:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 56¢
  • Aug 10, 08:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 56¢
  • Aug 10, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 56¢
updated 23:39:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 23:39:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventOrlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati - More Markets
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming MLS game between Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati, scheduled for August 15 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati each score at least one goal during the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if either team fails to score in the second half (i.e., if one or both teams finish the second half with zero goals). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

cincinnati

Reason

Question text contains "cincinnati" — matched the Sports keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Score in Second Half"?

As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:39:40 GMT, YES is priced at 46% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -5.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 15, 2026 (2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $698.36. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket