MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
Probability
54¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-30.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$75.57
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 31pp over 24h
Now 54¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 514h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 74.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 514.1h
- 13:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 514h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 54¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 49¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 55¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.0pp
to 84¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 83¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 54¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 53¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Rousey" if Ronda Rousey is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gina Carano at Most Valuable Promotions 1: Rousey vs. Carano, scheduled for May 16 2026. It will resolve to "Carano" if Gina Carano is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.mostvaluablepromotions.com/.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (74.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).