Nancy Pelosi vs Marjorie Taylor Greene: Week of November 24
Probability
0¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-34.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 28, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryby the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week, found in the "PeLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-66.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 35pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 28, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryby the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week, found in the "PeLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: by the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week, found in the "Pe
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Nancy Pelosi vs Marjorie Taylor Greene: Week of November 24 State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Nancy Pelosi vs Marjorie Taylor Greene: Week of November 24 State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 12:15SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-34.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
If the Marjorie Taylor Greene Index outperforms the Nancy Pelosi Index for the week beginning November 24, 2025, This market will resolve to "MTG". If the Nancy Pelosi Index outperforms the Marjorie Taylor Greene Index for the week beginning November 24, 2025, this market will resolve to "Pelosi". The resolution source for Marjorie Taylor Greene ("MTG") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559397469116612608 The resolution source for Nancy Pelosi ("Pelosi") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559433043512836096 The performance of each index will be determined by the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week, found in the "Performance table" under "1W". The index with the best percentage return will be deemed the winner. If index performances over the specified date range are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If the specified indices do not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days lack a specified price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution sources as the effective closing price. Updates to historical prices displayed by either index subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are updated mid-timeframe.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Nancy Pelosi vs Marjorie Taylor Greene: Week of November 24"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 12:15:24 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -34.5pp in the last 24 hours, -2.0pp in the last hour, and -66.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 28, 2025 (2025-11-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $282.26. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.