Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
Probability
46¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$7.9K
Liquidity
$35.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 27h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 27h.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 27 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 27.1h
- 19:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 27h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 51¢-14.5
Knicks vs. 76ers
Sports · Vol $746.7K
- 22¢0.0
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 52¢0.0
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5
Sports · Vol $961.23
- 44¢0.0
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
Sports · Vol $450.81
- 53¢0.0
1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
Sports · Vol $3.50
- 52¢0.0
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 30¢0.0
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 28¢0.0
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 13¢-37.0
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?
Sports · Vol $3.6M
- 100¢+60.0
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sports · Vol $2.6M
- 1¢0.0
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+36.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadenasso
Sports · Vol $776.4K
- 0¢-35.4
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Sports · Vol $748.7K
- 51¢-14.5
Knicks vs. 76ers
Sports · Vol $746.7K
Market Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 8 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Knicks" if the Knicks win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "76ers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
knicksReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "knicks" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: Knicks (-1.5)"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 19:55:32 GMT, YES is priced at 46% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nba.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nba.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$7.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $35.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
