Spurs Threes in 1st 3 Minutes: O/U 0.5
Probability
10¢
1h
-39.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$41.09
Liquidity
$122.97
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on made three-point field goals with the game clock between 12:00 and 9:00 in the 1st quarter, as recorded in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarybased on made three-point field goals with the game clock between 12:00 and 9:00 in the 1st quarter, as recorded in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification brief
oracle reviewThe market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.nba.com/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Spurs Threes in 1st 3 Minutes: O/U 0.5 State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Spurs Threes in 1st 3 Minutes: O/U 0.5 State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 07:08SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:30Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 7h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming NBA game between Knicks and Spurs, scheduled for 2026-06-04 at 00:30 UTC: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Spurs make more than 0.5 three-point field goals during the first 3 minutes of the game (12:00 to 9:00 remaining in the 1st quarter). If the Spurs make less than 0.5 three-pointers in the first 3 minutes, this market will resolve to "Under". The result will be determined based on made three-point field goals with the game clock between 12:00 and 9:00 in the 1st quarter, as recorded in the official NBA play-by-play. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nba Reason
NBA — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spurs Threes in 1st 3 Minutes: O/U 0.5"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 07:08:24 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -39.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T00:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nba.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nba.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.09 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $41.09. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $122.97. Spread between best bid and best ask: 20.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.