Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Probability
37¢
1h
-6.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$330.74
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -6.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14770h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 35.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14770.1h
- 18:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14770h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: +26.5pp at 22:00 (to 49¢).
Show all 39 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:55 · +5.0pp → 37¢
- 17:00 · +6.5pp → 38¢
- 15:00 · +14.5pp → 46¢
- 14:00 · +10.5pp → 42¢
- 12:00 · +8.5pp → 40¢
- 11:00 · +18.5pp → 49¢
- 09:00 · +20.0pp → 48¢
- 08:00 · +19.0pp → 48¢
- 06:00 · +18.5pp → 48¢
- 05:00 · +16.5pp → 46¢
- 03:00 · +12.0pp → 42¢
- 02:00 · +12.5pp → 41¢
- 00:00 · +19.5pp → 49¢
- 22:00 · +26.5pp → 49¢
- 21:00 · +21.5pp → 49¢
- 20:00 · +17.0pp → 44¢
- 1d ago · +23.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +23.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +24.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +21.5pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · +14.5pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · +19.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · +13.0pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · +20.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +19.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +16.0pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +11.0pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +13.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · +16.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · +14.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · +15.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +12.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +14.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +15.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +13.0pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · +14.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +13.5pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- using the total token supply multiplied by the token priceAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowx.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (35.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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