OtherExpires Jan 1, 2028

Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Probability

37¢

1h

-6.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$330.74

Probability (last 7 days)

+21.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 37¢; -6.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14770h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 35.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14770.1h

    LOW
  • 18:55Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 14770h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

Biggest hourly move: +26.5pp at 22:00 (to 49¢).

Show all 39 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:55 · +5.0pp → 37¢
  • 17:00 · +6.5pp → 38¢
  • 15:00 · +14.5pp → 46¢
  • 14:00 · +10.5pp → 42¢
  • 12:00 · +8.5pp → 40¢
  • 11:00 · +18.5pp → 49¢
  • 09:00 · +20.0pp → 48¢
  • 08:00 · +19.0pp → 48¢
  • 06:00 · +18.5pp → 48¢
  • 05:00 · +16.5pp → 46¢
  • 03:00 · +12.0pp → 42¢
  • 02:00 · +12.5pp → 41¢
  • 00:00 · +19.5pp → 49¢
  • 22:00 · +26.5pp → 49¢
  • 21:00 · +21.5pp → 49¢
  • 20:00 · +17.0pp → 44¢
  • 1d ago · +23.5pp → 42¢
  • 1d ago · +23.5pp → 42¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 43¢
  • 1d ago · +21.5pp → 40¢
  • 1d ago · +14.5pp → 33¢
  • 1d ago · +19.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +13.0pp → 31¢
  • 1d ago · +20.0pp → 38¢
  • 1d ago · +19.5pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +16.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +11.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +9.5pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +13.5pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +16.5pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +14.5pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +15.5pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +11.5pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +12.0pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +14.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +15.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +13.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +14.5pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +13.5pp → 28¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Nexus (https://x.com/NexusLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
using the total token supply multiplied by the token priceAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
x.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (35.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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