SportsExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

Canadiens vs. Sabres

Probability

44¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$5.6K

Liquidity

$30.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 42h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts
Link
nhl.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 16:00May 7, 2026, 04:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-07T04-57Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 44¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $5.6k traded against $30.7k of visible liquidity (0.18× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 42h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 42 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 42.0h

    HIGH
  • 04:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 42h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at 04:00 (to 44¢).

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventCanadiens vs. Sabres
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 8 at 7:00PM ET: If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

canadiens

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "canadiens" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Canadiens vs. Sabres"?

As of Thu, 07 May 2026 04:57:12 GMT, YES is priced at 44% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nhl.com/scores.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

18 wallets
Open on Polymarket