NYA (NYA) Up or Down on May 1?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-50.0pp
24h Vol
$40.00
Liquidity
$4.7K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 50pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:18SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 2h ago
Price movement
-50.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 100¢+28.4
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $3.8M
- 0¢-10.4
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $366.8K
- 100¢+35.4
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?
Other · Vol $344.7K
- 0¢0.0
Saint-Malo: Yue Yuan vs Anna Blinkova
Other · Vol $296.6K
- 18¢-1.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $265.0K
- 96¢+93.7
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $252.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NYA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE Composite Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.