Will CA Grau win on 2026-05-15?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$182.41
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 61.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 488.4h
- 16:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 42¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 15, 2026 If CA Grau wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://liga1.pe/News consensus
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (61.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.