SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 2, 2026

Will FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?

Probability

21¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-13.5pp

24h Vol

$58.75

Liquidity

$733.96

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 22:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 14pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 26¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 162.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-14.5pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

Biggest hourly move: -13.5pp at 2d ago (to 31¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -10.0pp → 21¢
  • 21:00 · -8.5pp → 21¢
  • 20:00 · -9.0pp → 21¢
  • 19:00 · -9.5pp → 21¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 33¢
  • 2d ago · -10.0pp → 33¢
  • 2d ago · -13.5pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · -13.0pp → 32¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 2, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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