Will Leinster win?
Probability
86¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$6.3K
Liquidity
$6.5K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+35.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 86¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 165.8h
- 16:10SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 86¢.
Biggest hourly move: +37.5pp at 18:00 (to 86¢).
Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +35.0pp → 85¢
- 18:00 · +37.5pp → 86¢
- 1d ago · +34.5pp → 81¢
- 1d ago · +30.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · +31.5pp → 79¢
- 1d ago · +30.0pp → 79¢
- 1d ago · +30.0pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +30.0pp → 79¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 100¢+3.8
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $2.4M
- 100¢+42.4
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 0¢-44.5
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 100¢+49.5
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?
Other · Vol $912.7K
- 100¢+0.3
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $381.1K
- 0¢-36.4
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02?
Other · Vol $251.1K
Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 2 2026 If Leinster wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Unwieldy-Dark1.4K
- 0xa5ef…29661.1K
- Elliptical-Church1.1K
- Circular-Folk908
- Teeming-Ritual338